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Modelling the 20Th and 21St Century Evolution of Hoffellsjökull Glacier, Se-vatnajökull, Iceland : Volume 5, Issue 2 (06/04/2011)

By Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003991573
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File Size: Pages 34
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Modelling the 20Th and 21St Century Evolution of Hoffellsjökull Glacier, Se-vatnajökull, Iceland : Volume 5, Issue 2 (06/04/2011)  
Author: Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.
Volume: Vol. 5, Issue 2
Language: English
Subject: Science, Cryosphere, Discussions
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2011
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

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Hannesdóttir, H., Guðmundsson, S., Björnsson, H., Jóhannesson, T., Pálsson, F., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.,...Berthier, E. (2011). Modelling the 20Th and 21St Century Evolution of Hoffellsjökull Glacier, Se-vatnajökull, Iceland : Volume 5, Issue 2 (06/04/2011). Retrieved from http://nook-library.net/


Description
Description: Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavík, Iceland. The Little Ice Age maximum extent of glaciers in Iceland was reached about 1890 AD and most glaciers in the country have retreated during the 20th century. A model for the surface mass balance and the flow of glaciers is used to reconstruct the 20th century retreat history of Hoffellsjökull, a south-flowing outlet glacier of Vatnajökull, which is located close to the southeast coast of Iceland. The bedrock topography was surveyed with radio-echo soundings in 2001. A wealth of data are available to force and constrain the model, e.g. surface elevation maps from ~1890, 1936, 1946, 1986, 2001, 2008 and 2010, mass balance observations conducted in 1936–1938 and after 2001, energy balance measurements after 2001, and glacier surface velocity derived by DGPS and correlation of SPOT5 images. The 21% volume loss of this glacier in the period 1895–2010 is realistically simulated with the model. After calibration of the model with past observations, it is used to simulate the future response of the glacier during the 21st century. The mass balance model was forced with an ensemble of temperature and precipitation scenarios from a study of the effect of climate change on energy production in the Nordic countries (the CES project). If the average climate of 2000–2009 is maintained into the future, the volume of the glacier is projected to be reduced by 30% with respect to the present at the end of this century, and the glacier will almost disappear if the climate warms as suggested by most of the climate change scenarios. Runoff from the glacier is predicted to increase for the next 30–40 years and decrease after that as a consequence of the diminishing ice-covered area.

Summary
Modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier, SE-Vatnajökull, Iceland

Excerpt
A{\dh}algeirsdóttir, G.: Flow dynamics of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, Mitteilung 181, Versuchsantalt fur Wasserbau, Hydrologie und Glaziologie der ETH Zurich-Zentrum, 178 pp, 2003.; A{\dh}algeirsdóttir, G., Jóhannesson, T., Björnsson, H., Pálsson, F., Sigur{\dh}sson, O.: Response of Hofsjökull and southern Vatnajökull, Iceland, to climate change, J. Geophys. Res.,{111}, F03001, doi:10.1029/2005JF000388, 2006.; A{\dh}algeirsdóttir, G., Björnsson, H., and Jóhannesson, T.: Vatnajökull ice cap, results of computations with a dynamical model coupled with a degree-day mass-balance model, Reykjavík, Science Institute, University of Iceland, Rep. RH-11-2004, 2004.; Ahlmann, H. W.: The regime of Hoffellsjökull, Geografiska Annaler, 21, 171–188, 1939.; Ahlmann, H. W. and Thorarinsson, S.: Vatnajökull, Scientific results of the Swedish–Icelandic investigations 1936–37–38, Stockholm, Esselte, 306 pp, 1943.; Berthier, E., Vadon, H., Baratoux, D., Arnaud, Y., Vincent, C., Feigl, K. L., Rémy, F. and Legrésy, B.: Surface motion of mountain glaciers derived from satellite optical imagery, Remote Sens. Environ., 95(1), 14–28, 2005.; Björnsson, H.: The surface area of glaciers in Iceland, Jökull, 28, 31, 1978.; Björnsson, H.: Glaciers in Iceland, Jökull, 29, 74–80, 1979.; Björnsson, H., Pálsson, F., and Haraldsson, H. H.: Mass balance of Vatnajökull (1991–2001) and Langjökull (1996–2001), Iceland, Jökull, 53, 75–78, 2003.; Björnsson, H. and Pálsson, F.: Jöklar í Hornafir{\dh}i, in: Björnsson, H., Jónsson, E., and Runólfsson, S., Jöklaveröld, Náttúra og Mannlíf, Reykjavík, Skrudda, 125–164, 2004.; Björnsson, H. and Pálsson, F.: Icelandic glaciers. Jökull, 58, 365–386, 2008.; Bouillon, A., Bernard, M., Gigord, P., Orsoni, A., Rudowski, V., and Baudoin, A.: SPOT 5 HRS geometry performance: Using block adjustments as a key issue to improve quality of DEM generation, ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 60, 134–146, 2006.; Dempster, A. P., Laird, N. M., and Rubin, D. B.: Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm, J. Roy. Statist. Soc., Ser. B, {39}(1), 1–38, 1977.; Einarsson, M. Á.: Climate of Iceland, edited by: van Loon, H., Climates of the Oceans, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 673–697, 1984.; Gu{\dh}mundsson, S., Björnsson, H., Pálsson, F., and Haraldsson, H. H.: Energy balance and degree-day models of summer ablation on the Langjökull ice cap, SW Iceland, Jökull, 59, 1–18, 2009a.; Gu{\dh}mundsson, S., Björnsson, H., Jóhannesson, T., A{\dh}algeirsdóttir, G., Pálsson, F., and Sigur{\dh}sson, O.: Similarities and differences in the response of two ice caps in Iceland to climate warming, Hydrol. Res., 40, 495–502, 2009b.; Gu{\dh}mundsson, S., Björnsson, H., Magnússon, E., Berthier, E., Pálsson, F., Gu{\dh}mundsson, M. T., Högnadóttir, Th., and Dall, J.: Response of Eyjafjallajökull, Torfajökull and Tindfjallajökull ice caps in Iceland to regional warming, deduced by remote sensing, Polar Res., in press., 2011.; IPCC: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, Jr, H. L., Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, Cambridge University Press, 996 pp., 2007.; Jarosch, A. H. and Gu{\dh}mundsson, M. T.: Numerical studies of ice flow over subglacial geothermal heat sources at Grímsvötn, Iceland, using Full Stokes equations, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, F02008, doi:10.1029/2006JF000540, 2007.; Jóhannesson, T., Sigur{\dh}sson, O., Laumann, T., and Kennett, M.: Degree-day glacier mass-balance modelling with application to glacier in Iceland, Norway and Greenland, J. Glaciol., 41(138), 345–358, 1995.; Jóhannesson, T.: The response of two Icelandic glaci

 

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